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Dialogue glory Zhao Ming: China's 5G mobile phone sales will break 100 million next year

via:新浪科技     time:2019/6/26 14:02:33     readed:235

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People can't help but wonder: What are the advantages of 5G? Which industries will it subvert? What is the change in tariffs compared to 4G? What is the status of China's 5G in the world? ......

On this occasion, Sina Technology and Sina 5G Channel jointly launched the “5G Everyone Talk” series of video columns, and invited famous people in the fields of politics, production, learning, research and use to explain the development and landing of 5G in detail, and answer questions for readers. Confuse.

This guest introduces:

Zhao Ming, President of Glory.

Joined in March 1998HuaweiThe company has served as president of Huawei's CDMA/WiMAX/TD product line, global wireless solution sales department, representative of Italy, and vice president of Western Europe. In March 2015, he served as President of Glory and was fully responsible for the glory business.

Can't be 5G and 5G 5GMobile phoneNeed a flagship experience

On June 6 this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology officially issued a 5G commercial license. While operators are actively announcing the 5G base station construction plan, mobile phone manufacturers are also preheating 5G mobile phones to show their muscles.

Zhao Ming previously announced that Glory will release its first 5G commercial handset in China in the fourth quarter of this year. Compared with several other mobile phone manufacturers, this time is not the front, but Zhao Ming told Sina Technology that glory will not be 5G for 5G, but first of all to understand what kind of 5G mobile phone experience is offered to consumers. .

He cites, for example,China MobileRecently released 5G strategy, the future 5G mobile phone supports NSA plus SA networking. Many mobile phones have moved to the NSA this year, which will face a challenge in the future: less than 5G networks in cities with only SA networking. Zhao Ming revealed to Sina Technology that Glory will be committed to providing dual-mode 5G mobile phones supported by both NSA and SA. This product will be commercially available in the fourth quarter of this year and is currently undergoing preliminary testing and verification. “Glory 5G mobile phones can be used and experienced for a long time once they are released,” he said.

At present, only Huawei and glory can provide dual-mode 5G mobile phones. He further explained that mobile phone manufacturers need to support NSA and SA dual-mode, and need support for chips and underlying algorithms. The Huawei and Glory teams have a rich wireless background, so the chip strategy and 5G terminal strategy that was first developed is to support NSA and SA to bring the best equipment and experience to consumers.

The price of 5G mobile phones is also the most concerned issue for consumers. At present, the average price level of 5G mobile phones is still very high, and some even exceed 10,000 yuan, which also makes some consumers discouraged.

Zhao Ming revealed to Sina Technology that the first 5G mobile phone of Glory will also be the flagship level. He does not agree to apply it to the thousand yuan machine in the early stage of 5G commercial use. "Take a thousand yuan machine speed up ten times, you may find that its CPU and GPU functions may not be able to handle, the experience will be worse." He said, therefore, glory will not be 5G for 5G, will first plan What kind of experience is brought to the consumer, and then it is realized step by step at a reasonable cost.

5G tariffs will be cheaper. China’s 5G mobile phone sales will exceed 100 million units next year.

In Zhao Ming's view, the issuance of 5G licenses will greatly advance the 5G equipment, terminals, services and applications of China. By then, China will also build the world's largest and best-performing 5G network.

However, due to the high speed and low latency of 5G, operators are still unclear about the rules for setting up tariffs. At present, the three major operators have not yet officially issued 5G tariff standards.

South Korea's three major telecom operators have launched 5G services to their consumers in April this year, but their tariffs are not cheap, and the monthly subscription fee is at least 55,000 won (about 325 yuan), providing only 8 GB of data traffic; The 5G package announced by US operator Verizon has a minimum monthly fee of US$85 (approximately RMB 507), which provides unlimited speed limit.

These 5G tariffs are undoubtedly at a relatively high level for Chinese consumers, which has caused many consumers to worry about China's 5G tariff.

Zhao Ming believes that the price of each GB of traffic will definitely decrease in the future. The price of 50G traffic in the 5G era will definitely be cheaper than the 50G traffic in the 4G era. "From the perspective of the development of the communications field, this must be the trend."

Under the positive attitude of China's early issuance of 5G licenses and operators' 5G tariffs, Zhao Ming is also very optimistic about the popularity of 5G mobile phones.

He predicted that the sales of 5G mobile phones may reach 100 million yuan next year, and the Chinese market may be the first to break through 100 million units.

The smartphone market is likely to be subverted again

A few days ago, Huawei officially announced that as of May 30, Huawei+Glory had shipped more than 100 million mobile phones worldwide. Under the current international situation facing Huawei, it has also achieved 100 million units ahead of last year.

Previously, Yu Chengdong set a goal of 250 million units for Huawei and Glory this year. Zhao Ming admits that the target will be affected by the current situation, but Huawei and glory are also actively looking for various possibilities and solutions. "In fact, the best way to get through the crisis at this time is to use the better products to face the current market." He said that the completion of 100 million shipments in advance is an example, "This is the loss of the horse, knowing the blessings." Let's go."

Beyond the international situation, the 5G opportunities that mobile phone manufacturers are expecting also keep Zhao Ming in a sense of crisis.

He told Sina Technology that 5G may give birth to some new terminal forms and experiences, such as the combination of AR, VR technology and mobile phones. Although the current smart phone market pattern has been relatively stable, it is still possible to create some innovative brands in the future, and use the new idea to subvert the innovation of existing mobile phone manufacturers, just as before.iPhoneSubvert the smartphone market landscape.

"At present, every mobile phone manufacturer is in the process of making products," he said.

The following is the Sina Technology Dialogue Zhao Ming Record:

Sina Technology: This month, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has just issued a 5G license. What positive impact do you think this has on China's 5G industry?

Zhao Ming:This time is accelerating the entire 5G end-to-end industrialization process, from system construction, application layer, terminal, and various services. This is actually a trillion-dollar large-scale industry, helping and promoting all walks of life. They are very big. Chinese communication equipment vendors, including Huawei, are global leaders in 5G equipment. At present, China is also the earliest wave of construction in the world to start building 5G, and the starting point is very high. China Mobile's recently announced 5G strategy covers nearly 40 cities by the end of this year. In more than 200 cities next year, it will build tens of thousands of base stations. At the current rate, hundreds of thousands of base stations may be built next year, which is rare on a global scale. China's network is the world's largest network and the best experience. Therefore, the 5G license will be issued in advance, which will greatly accelerate and advance the 5G equipment, terminals, services and applications of China. This will help the entire industry layout and competition in the next decade.

Sina Technology: Regarding the application scenario of 5G, the industry has not yet reached a consensus. For the consumer side, what do you think is the biggest application scenario of 5G, and what is the layout of glory?

Zhao Ming:5G network speed will be ten times that of the current 4G, the entire network delay is greatly reduced, it will drive many changes in the form and experience of the terminal, such as AR, VR technology better combined with mobile phones, etc.; when the 5G network is in place Later, the increase in rate and the decrease in delay will also lead to many new terminal forms.

Sina Technology: Is there any planning for glory in VR and AR?

Zhao Ming:some. It is still limited by the processing power and network speed of the mobile phone. In fact, it needs a node. I think 5G will be an accelerator. In fact, you can imagine that when there are ten times the speed of the 4G network, the flow of information and image streams and video streams requires a drastic change for the processing power of the mobile GPU and the processing power of the CPU. This change, in turn, has given rise to the power of the phone itself becoming more powerful.

With such processing power and functionality, many applications and forms, even those that we couldn't imagine, will become reality on mobile phones. In the 2G era, we mainly used mobile phones to make calls. When it was ten times faster than the current 4G speed, the mobile phone was somewhat equivalent to the capabilities of many computers, so that some processing that could not be realized could be done on the mobile phone. . So 5G can be said to be an accelerator and a catalytic converter.

Sina Technology: You have also revealed that the glory of 5G mobile phones may be released in the fourth quarter. What is the status now? Is there still some technology to verify?

Zhao Ming:It can be seen that the 5G strategy released by China Mobile requires support for the networking of NSA plus SA in the future. Many mobile phones have gone to the NSA this year, but in fact, there will be a challenge in the future, that is, the city with only SA networking will not experience 5G network. So we are currently working on a dual-mode 5G phone that both NSA and SA support, and it will be commercially available in the fourth quarter of this year. Before the commercialization, we will have some trials and verifications, and cooperate with the operator network construction, so once released, it will allow everyone to use and experience for a long time.

Sina Technology: Mobile phone manufacturers want to support NSA and SA dual mode, what is the threshold?

Zhao Ming:Mainly in the chip, the underlying algorithm support, and then the synthesis system. Our batch of Huawei and glory mobile phones are all wireless backgrounds. I am doing third-generation mobile communication. I have done 3G and 4G. Now I am going to do 5G at the terminal, so our trend of network construction for global operators. I am especially aware of it. The chip strategy we developed at the beginning, and the strategy of the entire 5G terminal, is to support NSA and SA, especially SA, which is the core network of 5G, which is better for users to experience the performance of 5G network. When 5G comes, Huawei and glory must bring the best experience and the best equipment and the best product terminal to consumers, so we said that we are going in the first direction.

Sina Technology: What is the price of the first 5G mobile phone in glory?

Zhao Ming:In general, we will still do it from the flagship machine. It is conceivable that when the 5G rate is increased tenfold, it requires the mobile phone to have strong data processing capabilities. If you start with a low-end machine, its processor's processing power can't keep up, it will not experience the advantages and performance of 5G. Therefore, our first step is to show the best performance of 5G performance and 5G experience, and we will consider it first from the flagship machine.

Sina Technology: Some consumers will think that the current 5G mobile phone is still too high in price, they are expecting the popularity of 5G thousand yuan machine, what do you think?

Zhao Ming:Glory from the planning and consideration of products, not for 5G and 5G, the most important thing is to give consumers what kind of 5G experience. Today's 4G speed and experience have done a good job on some basic services. But what kind of capabilities and experience should you have when you need a 5G phone? There is no doubt that 5G mobile phone processing power is very strong. If you simply put 5G on the low-end machine, a large number of CPUs, GPUs and other processing resources are occupied, which will make the mobile phone with a good comprehensive experience experience bad. It is. For example, if you increase the speed of a thousand yuan machine by ten times, you may find that many functions of its CPU and GPU may not be able to handle it. So we first plan what kind of experience we want to bring to the consumer. After the definition of the 5G bottom line experience is defined, we will implement it step by step at a reasonable cost.

Sina Technology: At present, the capacity of the thousand yuan machine can not carry 5G network.

Zhao Ming:The load can't be carried, and the experience may get worse. So in the future we have to consider that 5G mobile phones must bring a better experience to consumers, not 5G and 5G.

Sina Technology: Many mobile phone manufacturers predict that next year will be the stage of large-scale commercial use of 5G mobile phones. What do you think? What kind of magnitude is the 5G mobile phone expected to reach next year?

Zhao Ming:As long as the glory of the shot, it must be a large-scale commercial, for us is a massive transaction. We have some prototypes that have been tested by operators, and Glory has already prepared for the final large-scale commercialization in all aspects. From the commercial process of 5G mobile phones, the magnitude of next year may be 100 million. I expect that the sales of 5G mobile phones in China next year may be the first to break through 100 million units. I mean the entire Chinese market.

Sina Technology: Originally from 3G to 4G conversion, the pattern of the smartphone market has changed a lot. Do you think there will be some new trends in the transition from 4G to 5G?

Zhao Ming:From the perspective of several existing mobile phone manufacturers, everyone is actively preparing for 5G products. These competitive landscapes will continue from the 4G era to the 5G era, because 4G and 5G will overlap. But in the future, there may be some new innovative brands born, they may have some new ideas, subverting the so-called innovation of existing mobile phone manufacturers. Just like when the iPhone subverted the traditional smartphone, one did it.iPodThe subversion of the entire smartphone market. In fact, in the future, there may be a kind of cross-border players, so every mobile phone manufacturer is currently doing thin ice.

Sina Technology: At present, the operator's billing model has not yet been finalized. Will the tariff issue be an obstacle to the popularity of 5G mobile phones?

Zhao Ming:The price per bit, or per G traffic, will definitely decrease. The price of 50G traffic in the 5G era will definitely be cheaper than the 50G traffic in the 4G era. From the perspective of the development of the communication field, it must be such a trend.

Sina Technology: Huawei just announced this month that the global mobile phone shipments at the end of May have exceeded 100 million units. Before that, Yu Chengdong set a target of 250 million units this year. Under the current international situation, will there be some adjustments to this goal?

Zhao Ming:It may be affected by some, and we are still observing the development of the entire market. Some areas are very good, and some areas have some pressure. On the whole, we are definitely looking for a wide range of possibilities and solutions. In fact, the best way to survive the crisis at this time is to have better products to face the current market. Fortunately, we have been keeping a lot of technical and product reserves, so our entire company and organization are relatively calm and calm in dealing with this matter.

Sina Technology: The time of shipment of 100 million units this year is ahead of last year.

Zhao Ming:Yes, we always have our own rhythm. Although there have been some changes, things are still going on. Perhaps this is the loss of the horse, knowing that it is not a blessing.

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