What is the market space for significant progress in the African swine fever vaccine?
After the success of laboratory research in April this year, the research and development of African swine fever vaccine in China made new and important progress in August this year.
How big is the market space?
Founder Securities Research pointed out that the research and development of African swine fever vaccine in China began with the isolation of the first African swine fever virus (Pig/HLJ/2018) last year. Within one year, breakthroughs were made:
(1) creating candidate vaccines;
2) the culture of gene deficient virus strain in primary cells in vitro was realized.
3) the cell culture and freeze-drying process of candidate vaccine were optimized. Under the laboratory condition of double gene deletion candidate vaccine (Δ MGF Δ CD2V), 100% of the targeted animals survived, 95% of the virulent animals survived, and they could not detoxify the anus, which could effectively control the transverse transmission between the targeted animals. The efficacy and safety of candidate vaccines are ideal.
At present, the main pig vaccines include foot-and-mouth disease vaccine, pig blue ear vaccine, pseudorabies vaccine, swine fever vaccine, pig ring vaccine and so on. From the point of view of R & D and production technology, the cost of African swine fever vaccine is higher than that of other swine vaccines.
Founder Securities believes that the African swine fever vaccine may be sold through government recruitment for a period of time after it goes on sale. It is expected that the price of the African swine fever vaccine will be between 5 and 7 yuan per head.
In terms of market share, assuming that African swine fever vaccine can be on the market next year, based on the assumption of live pig production and the stock of viable sows, sensitivity analysis is carried out from 5-7 yuan per head of vaccine price. Founder Securities estimates that the potential market size of African swine fever vaccine under neutral conditions is 8 billion yuan. Once listed, the scale of the swine vaccine market is expected to double.
Individual stocks in the industrial chain are expected to receive attention
In terms of specific investment targets, Founder Securities believes that the explosive rise of animal vaccine sector is almost related to the introduction of new products. In the short term, the development of African swine fever vaccine will be the catalyst to push the overall rise of the plate, improve the valuation level of the plate. Once developed successfully, it will greatly expand the market space of the vaccine, thus transforming it into the growth of the performance of listed companies.
At present, it is the stage of swine fever vaccine plate allocation. Once the vaccine is on the market and the experience of blue-ear vaccine is used for reference, the listed companies are expected to qualify for the production of African swine fever vaccine, recommend biological stocks and stocks of Zhongmu, and recommend focusing on Pleco and Rip Biology.
Huachuang Securities pointed out that, from the investment point of view, if not for the successful introduction of the plague vaccine, the short-term outlook will increase the valuation of the listed companies. In the medium and long term, the market space will be opened, the profits of listed companies will be gradually and continuously realized, and the protection sector is expected to usher in Davis double-hit.
Huachuang Securities proposes to focus on the head enterprises with comprehensive advantages of software and hardware such as R&D, process, quality control and service level, including Biological Shares (leading in production technology), Zhongmu Shares (leading in protection by the central government, pioneers in compulsory exemption from seedlings), and Pleco (leading in R&D strength). (Source: Securities Times Network)