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Most analysts are optimistic about the pre-sale data of the iPhone 11 and some are particularly pessimistic.

via:网易科技     time:2019/9/17 21:45:29     readed:287


Apple Online Store (China)

As usual, their conclusions are inconsistent.

Apple did not disclose pre-sale data. Earlier this year, Apple stopped announcing quarterly results.IPhoneSales, so that the business has been depressed before also covered with a layer of mystery.

Of course, Apple hopes to ship the iPhone 11 series of smart devices on September 20.Mobile phoneCan reverse previous sales trends. The same is true of investors'expectations.

Positive prediction

In a research report released on Sunday, Guo Mingpi, an analyst at Tianfeng International Securities in Hong Kong, pointed out that the pre-sale volume of the iPhone 11 was "better than expected", which also improved his forecast of global shipments of Apple mobile phones. Guo expects Apple to sell 70 million to 75 million smartphones this year, up from 65 million to 70 million previously predicted.

Guo's analysis is based on the number of pre-orders for the new iPhone 11 on Apple's own website and the date of shipment that Apple provides to customers ordering the new iPhone 11.

Guo Mingyi's data does not include AT

Guo Mingpi wrote: "Apple's official website can better reflect the actual needs of consumers, because Apple's official channel accounts for 30% to 40% of the total shipments of the iPhone."

Guo pointed out that demand for Apple's $999 iPhone 11 Pro was strong. He attributed it to Apple.“Replace old ones with old ones” The plan and the "Annual Renewal of the iPhone" plan. The "old for new" program provides consumers with discount recycling of used mobile phones to help them partly offset the cost of new equipment. The "Annual Renewal of the iPhone" program allows consumers to buy new iPhones on 24-month instalments.

Meanwhile, Dan Ives (Dan Ives), an analyst at Wade Bush Securities, said demand for Apple's new iphone was strong. He said the iPhone 11 starts at $699, $50 cheaper than when the previous iPhone XR went on sale, making iPhone 11 more attractive to consumers.

"The pre-sale of IPhone 11 looks good," Ives told investors. Like Guo, Ives thinks Apple will sell 75 million iPhones this year.

Not optimistic

But some Apple analysts are more pessimistic about the demand for the iPhone 11. According to Jun Zhang, an analyst at Rosenblatt Securities, pre-sales of the 11-series smartphones in the U.S. and China dropped by up to 20% compared with last year's XS, XS Max and XR.

He said the pre-sale volume of the iPhone 11 was 15% lower than that of the XR. Zhang Jun added that pre-sales of the iPhone 11 Pro and the iPhone 11 Pro Max were 20% lower than those of the iPhone XS and the iPhone XS Max.

Zhang Jun did not reveal how many iPhone 11 phones Apple would sell in 2019, but he estimated that by the end of September, Apple would sell 18.5 million iPhone 11 phones. As of September 2018, Apple had sold 14.9 million iPhones XS and XS Max, compared with 10 million in October 2018.

Only Apple knows the answer.

Only Apple knows exactly how the new iPhone is being pre-sold. So whose conclusion should we trust?

Guo Mingpi pointed out in his research report that it is meaningless to compare the pre-sale volume of the first weekend of 2019 with that of 2018. Because the three phones of the iPhone 11 were released at the same time, two new phones were released at the same time last year, and a month later, the third one was released.

Analysts also disagree on the trend of Apple shares. Apple shares rose 0.5% to $219.90 on Monday, local time.

Ives rated Apple's stock as "outperform" with a 12-month target price of $245.

Meanwhile, this week, a Jun reiterated its "sell" rating for Apple shares. His 12-month target price for Apple shares is $150, much lower than the current price.

Overall, the average target price of Apple's shares for the 32 analysts who follow Apple is $223.93, which indicates that there is still room for a moderate rise in Apple's shares in the future.

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