existDomestic Autonomous Controllable Substitution。
Especially in the information industry, the experiences of ZTE and Huawei in the past two years have triggered the necessity of self-research core technology in the whole society in an all-round way.
Ni Guangnan, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, has a more vivid explanation for this:Building a house on someone else's wall base, no matter how big or beautiful, may not withstand the storm.
In the road map of the development of China's information industry in the past few decades, Ni Guangnan is behind the emergence of domestic CPU, integrated circuits, domestic Linux and other important products. Now, this is calledBarefoot entrepreneurs in China's IT industryOver 80 years old, it is still on the front line of promoting the independent and controllable substitution of China's information industry.。
Academician Ni Guangnan was interviewed by DeepTech. Source: DeepTech
Recently,Academician Ni Guangnan's Exclusive Interview with DeepTechIn depth, this paper deeply interprets the new wave of autonomous and controllable alternative industries, especially one of the iconic events of this year, which is surging in the dark tide.
Now,Operating systems, chips, basic software, cloud computing and other technologies and products have all begun to move towards autonomous and controllable alternatives.On the other side of the ocean, the United States seems to be pushing forward similar processes. A few days ago, it was reported that the US government was eager to support 5G equipment manufacturers in order to counter the competitive pressure brought by China's telecommunications giants.
In this process, Academician Ni Guangnan believes that the domestic science and technology industry has existed for a long time in the past.It is better to buy than to rent than to build.Under the trend of independent and controllable substitution, innovative small and medium-sized enterprises are expected to usher in greater growth space.
The following is the exclusive interview:
First, independent and controllable substitution or leading the next wave of shuffling, innovative SMEs will break through soon
DeepTech: You are committed to promoting our core technology of self-control. What are the urgent problems we need to solve at this stage?
Ni Guangnan:In a global ICT ranking as of September 15, 2019, unlisted Huawei ranked first with a valuation of $1.3 trillion compared with a number of listed companies, followed by Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook, Ali, Tencent, Samsung and Intel. Among the top 10 companies, there were three Chinese companies and six American companies. So, in the field of ICT, China ranks second overall after the United States, but its development is still severely constrained by the United States.
* There is a mistake in the picture. Tencent's headquarters should be Shenzhen.
Our online messaging industryShort boardChips and Basic Software(including OS and industrial software, etc.),Long boardInternet Application and New Generation Information Technology(e.g. 5G).
The main objective factors contributing to these phenomena lie in the fact that foreign countries have developed many years earlier than us. Our country is still a developing country. There is a gap between our national strength and the level of science and technology and developed countries. In addition, foreign countries have imposed an embargo on us.
Subjective factors mainly lie in:The long-term existence of Science and Technology Industry in China。
existThe development of EDA software in China is a typical example.The country started early in 1988.
Over the past three decades, China's development has mainly depended on the introduction of the achievements of the last industrial revolution. It basically utilizes foreign technology. In the early stage, it is second-hand technology, and in the later stage, it is synchronous technology. At this stage, it is impossible not only to get the key core technology from others, but also to get the general high technology. We can't have any illusions about introducing new and high technology today. In the past, some people said that it's better to buy than to rent than to build. Now the logic has to be reversed.
Short and long board in China's online information field. Source: Ni Guangnan
DeepTech:After the ZTE Huawei Incident, some local enterprises may adjust their positioning strategies, such as chip localization and self-research. Do you see any misunderstandings in this wave that may need attention?
Ni Guangnan:Overall, in this situation, we can't expect others to sell you the key core technology, so there is no mistake in this direction. There is no mistake in the development of domestic independent and controllable substitution and domestic hardware and software, but we need to pay attention to opening up and innovation.
Of the four insistences recently put forward by leaders, the last one isWe should attach equal importance to safety, controllability and open innovationTo be safe and controllable means to be independent and controllable, and to be safe and credible. This is mainly aimed at the key core technology. In general, we can make full use of the advantages of open innovation, which needs to be differentiated according to the specific situation.
However, these two options must be equally important and must not be biased.
DeepTech:Under the trend of self-control, are large enterprises more likely to benefit or small and medium-sized enterprises more likely to have opportunities?Or for small and medium-sized enterprises, where are their future development opportunities?
Ni Guangnan:Generally speaking, since there are autonomous and controllable requirements, in fact, it has created better opportunities and fairer competition for some innovative SMEs. These companies may not be as good as large companies in terms of product and service level, but they are better at autonomy and control. For example, in the field of special emphasis on safety, there are also great opportunities.Especially for the key core technology, whether it can meet the requirements of autonomy and controllability often has a veto status.At present, developed countries have embargoed us on certain key core technologies.This makes it easier for the core technology of independent innovation to enter the market and gain opportunities for development and growth.
We now advocate that small and medium-sized enterprises with self-control and innovation must have more opportunities. Of course,Domestic core technology and hardware and software must have the ability to replace imports in order to occupy a place in the market.。In view of the rapid development of information technology, new technology is often better than old technology, so domestic independent controllable substitution is not necessarily
Second, on Hongmeng's future: the Chinese market first ignited a prairie fire
DeepTech:In terms of operating system autonomy and control, it has to be mentioned that Huawei released this year.
Ni Guangnan:If it's justCombining Innovation Needs with Market Guidance。
Now, when a new technology comes into being, compared with the highest level of developed countries, sometimes the gap between China and developed countries is not so big, but because the market has been occupied by developed countries first-mover, the emerging technology, even if there is no particularly big gap in technology, is also difficult to be accepted by the market because there are not enough users to form an ecology. 。
The question of ecological construction is whether there are users or applications first, which is a bit like the question of chicken or egg first. It seems that we should support domestic core technology in the market, help the development of applications, and make the ecosystem grow faster.
To this end, the leaders of the State have proposed that:Strengthen R&D efforts and market-oriented guidance。
On the other hand, market-oriented guidance is also very important. We can first pick out a part of the market and create conditions for the development of new technologies.
Just as the country can adopt new domestic innovative technology through government procurement, government informatization and so on.This market seems to be only a small part of the whole market, but China's advantage lies in its large size.The scope of government office applications seems very small, but in the context of China's large market, the number of government information application computers used by government agencies and civil servants has reached tens of millions of orders of magnitude, almost comparable to the market of a country in Europe and the whole country.
We have also seen that in government affairs, some domestic operating systems and domestic CPUs have been applied, including in the application of data centers, and have achieved good results.
Therefore, I think market-oriented guidance is relatively easy to achieve in China, which is related to the consensus at the national level, which is also a matter that many forces in the industry have been promoting recently, that is, to promote the breakthrough of key core technologies.
DeepTech:As for Hongmeng, can Huawei do this well?
Ni Guangnan:In my opinion, Huawei as a whole, whether it is chip or software, has enough strength. At present, its products and technical services have shown strong competitiveness internationally. Their own technology level is no problem, and their innovation ability is strong enough.
In addition, Huawei has a large market share in China. We are optimistic about its future if we can upgrade its ecosystem and further improve it through the honing of the Chinese market.
DeepTech:How do you evaluate Hong Meng's attractiveness to foreign developers?
Ni Guangnan:First of all, I think it is still easier for China's own market to meet expectations. Just like 5G, China does not have all the standards or patents of 5G, but as long as we master the key core technologies and important patents, we will not be easily stuck.
Our 5G technology has become more mature through pilot and application in China. At the same time, some countries in the world are experimenting with our 5G technology to build base stations. This will be:Driving. In the future, China's market will become a good model. Many new technologies like 5G have the opportunity to go further from China to the world.
So,It is not excluded that Hongmeng also goes out according to this logic. It can be well verified in the Chinese market and it is possible to go abroad in the future.
China's high-speed rail is also an example. It has been used in the Chinese market and has been well promoted. It is now passed as a national business card.
DeepTech:How do you evaluate the current situation and future development of AI in China, especially AI chips?
Ni Guangnan:At present, the domestic strength lies in the application, and there are many AI applications, such as brushing face, sound recognition, machine translation and so on. But in the original technology research, the basic knowledge of the depth learning technology, this is not the wrong, but this is not enough,There is still a lack of original and basic research in China..
Of course,On the other hand, as the competent department, the university and so on, it is also necessary to actively encourage the basic research and the original innovation.
Now, deep learning has exposed some bottlenecks, including the need for a large number of tagging, relying on big data and so on, including the lack of interpretation of in-depth learning.
On AI chip, according to the general rule of chip industry, AI chip investment is very hot in recent years, but in fact, the risk is relatively high. There will not be many successful chips in the future, so I do not advocate that the market pour into AI chips in one swarm, especially in the future.HomogenizationA more serious direction.There are already winners like Google, Huawei and Cambrian, and unless there are obvious innovations, similar AI accelerators may not have many new opportunities.
DeepTech:As a tribute to the 70th anniversary of China's founding, you recently published a new book "Science and Technology Change China", which introduced the development of China's mobile communications, artificial intelligence, big data, Internet, high-speed rail and energy industries. Why did you choose these directions in many Chinese science and technology industries?
Ni Guangnan： Since the 70 th anniversary of the founding of the new China, we will select a number of special important achievements for scientific and technological achievements over the past 70 years, as well as an inspiration to the development of the future.
The six books cover a wide range, such as big data, artificial intelligence and so on, which are very important parts of the current new generation of information technology, and have shown their leading role, which is likely to lead the new scientific and technological revolution in the future. For example, many important companies in the new generation of information technology are leaders of big data, so big data is very important.
So, as for mobile communications and the Internet, it is our current information infrastructure that closely combines all aspects of our economy, society and life. At present, our country is developing very fast in this respect, and the gap between our country and the developed countries has developed from following others to catching up with each other, and the progress in the process of status conversion is particularly obvious.
In addition, high-speed rail and energy, high-speed rail has become a new business card of our country, and you can feel the great convenience of high-speed rail for travel. This will bring us a sense of happiness, promote the economy, and improve people's lives.
On the one hand, energy is the basis of our survival and economic development. At the same time,Energy is also a very important breakthrough in new technology.Therefore, the six directions we choose are quite representative. Of course, we are still preparing new content for follow-up.