Guo Mingfu, an analyst at Tianfeng international, shared the latest Apple Research Report. Key conclusions include:IPhone will grow strongly in the next two years, and the industrial chain will be the core of investment in the electronics industry in 2020. Thanks to 5g upgrades, new designs and a better product mix, we expect iPhone shipments to grow by about 6% and 8% in 2020 and 2021, respectively, to 205 – 210 million and 220 – 250 million units, with suppliers generally expected to benefit significantly. Among them, we believe that 5g related and optical industry will have the most significant growth in the next two years.
Apple will release new products in 1h20 and 1h21IPhone, which is conducive to the supply business performance is not weak in the off-season.
Our key forecast for the new iPhone in 2020 is as follows:
1. Support 5G is the most important technical upgrade of the new 2H20 iPhone. All new 2H20 iPhone models are equipped with Qualcomm X55 and support 5G, and only Sub-6G or Sub-6G mmWave support models are available in different countries.
2. For countries without 5g or with low penetration, Apple may use software to turn off 5g function of sub-6g iPhone model to reduce the cost of purchasing Qualcomm x55.
3. IPhone models that support Sub-6G mmWave are expected to be released in five markets, including the United States, Canada, Japan, South Korea and the United Kingdom. The shipment of supporting Sub-6G mmWave iPhone models accounts for about 15% of the new 2H20iPhone shipments.
5. Apple will release five new iPhone models in 2020. The iPhone se2 with a 4.7-inch LCD will be available in 1h20, and four other new iPhone models will be available in 2h20. The iPhone se2 looks the same as the iPhone 8, and the four new 2h20 iPhones look similar to the iPhone 4.
Our key forecast for the new iPhone in 2021 is as follows:
1. Apple will release iPhone se2 plus in 1h21. We predict that the display size will be 5.5 or 6.1 inches, and it will adopt a comprehensive screen design. Because the face ID is not supported, the Liuhai area is small, and the touch ID will be integrated with the side power button.
2. Apple will create more differences between the top-level models and other high-level models, which is conducive to improving the shipment volume of the top-level models and iPhone ASP. In the new 2h21 iPhone, we expect that the highest level model may cancel the lightning connection hole and provide a more complete wireless experience.