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The starting price dropped to 299000 yuan! Disclosure of domestic Tesla Model 3 supply chain

via:驱动之家     time:2020/1/3 19:24:27     readed:1102

On January 7, Tesla will usher in the first mass delivery to mass consumers at its Shanghai plant. However, before that, on January 3, Tesla officially announced the price adjustment information of the domestic version of the model 3, among which the official guide price model 3 of the upgraded standard endurance version was reduced from the original price of 355800 yuan to the current price of 323800 yuan, down more than 30000 yuan at one time. In addition to the 2475 yuan subsidy enjoyed by this model, the lowest price reached 29905 yuan.

It is worth noting that domestic model 3 does not send home filling piles. According to the latest sales policy, the family charging service package is priced at 8000 yuan, including the basic installation cost of a charging post and 80 meter cable. Users can purchase before or after the sale of the vehicle at their own discretion.


In addition to the official price change this time, the price of optional equipment for the whole model 3 is also reduced accordingly. Among them, the price of pure black car paint is free, and the price of other four colors of Pearl White, cold light silver, deep sea blue and Chinese red car paint is reduced to 8000 yuan. Meanwhile, the 19 inch sports hub was reduced to 6000 yuan.

In general, after the price reduction of model 3, combined with the new energy preferential subsidy and purchase tax exemption policy, the domestic Tesla Model 3 with standard endurance upgrade purchased by users will be less than 300000. Compared with other domestic new energy vehicles, the cost performance has been improved a lot. This is also expected to boost the sales volume of domestic Tesla Model 3, and it is also a great advantage for domestic Tesla Model 3 industry chain enterprises.


1、 Domestic Tesla capacity and future market pattern

1, capacity

We can see from tracking Tesla's total sales volume that after 2018q3, the company's quarterly production seems to have reached a bottleneck, with a single quarter stable at about 90000 vehicles, and the sales growth also slowed down.

According to Tesla's early planning, the power battery capacity of Giga factory1, a complete vehicle factory in Tesla America, is 20gwh in 2018, corresponding to 215000 complete vehicles, with a capacity utilization rate of 73%. The capacity of Giga 1 is planned to be around 300000, while we expect the company's target sales volume in 2019 to be around 350000, and the capacity utilization rate will be over 110%, which is in a state of insufficient capacity.

At present, it needs to wait about a quarter to book cars on Tesla's official website, excluding production and transportation time, and the queue number should also be later than 50000. Therefore, we judge that Tesla is still in a state of obvious short supply at present. The construction of Shanghai Giga factory 3 has the dual purpose of opening up the Chinese market and increasing the company's production capacity. Therefore, even if the domestic capacity cannot be fully digested in the future, it can also be exported to other neighboring countries.


The investment of Giga 3 is US $2 billion, the annual production capacity of phase I is 250000, the designed maximum production capacity is 500000 vehicles per year, which is used to produce model 3 and model y models, and the expected production in 2020 is 150000 vehicles per year. As far as the current construction progress is concerned, we think the progress of Giga 3 is faster than the market expectation.

According to December news, Tesla's current weekly production has reached 1000 units. If the production capacity continues to climb according to this efficiency, it should not be difficult to achieve the target of 150000 vehicles output in the whole year. However, considering that the current model 3 production still adopts the CKD mode (complete knocked down, the car enters in the state of complete disassembly, and then all parts and components of the car are assembled into the whole vehicle), the supply capacity of domestic parts manufacturers and the integrated production capacity of the factory are not fully tested.


In addition, as the most important component of new energy vehicles, the cell is still provided by Panasonic of Giga 1. It remains to be seen whether LG, the main domestic supplier, can successfully take over the battery in the future. After all, before Panasonic was better than Panasonic, the capacity of Tesla Model 3 was limited because the capacity of lithium battery did not reach the planned level. But there is no need to worry too much about Giga 3's capacity. because

In order to build the plant, Tesla received the full support of Shanghai municipal government in terms of land, plant, capital and policy, basically shielding the influence of external factors on production; and because of the internal experience of Giga 1 and the excellent Chinese technicians, the production capacity will climb faster in theory than that of American plants.

2. Market pattern at home and abroad

From the perspective of new energy vehicle market pattern in the United States, Tesla is in a leading market position. Since 2012, Tesla's sales volume in the U.S. market has increased rapidly, from 2509 in 2012 to 190000 in 2018. In the first three quarters of 2019, the sales volume reached 136000, a year-on-year increase of 19%.

Tesla's market share of new energy vehicles in the United States has gradually increased, from only about 5% in 2012 to 57% in the first three quarters of 2019. From the perspective of Tesla's development in the U.S. market, its products have strong competitiveness and market expansion.


At present, Tesla's overall market share in the U.S. new energy passenger vehicle market from January to September 2019 has reached 57.5%, 50% higher than the second-largest Chevrolet. Among them, model 3 is the main sales force of Tesla, and the market share of one model of model 3 has reached 47.3%.

From the perspective of single vehicle sales, Tesla's model 3 / S / X ranked 1, 3 and 5 out of the top 10 new energy passenger vehicle sales in the first three quarters of 2019. Among them, the model 3 ranks first with 110000 sales, far surpassing the second ranked Toyota Prius.

From the perspective of market share and model sales, model 3 models are competitive in the U.S. market; after model 3 is made in China, it will have a direct impact on the domestic new energy vehicle market, and will directly occupy part of the market share of other new energy vehicle companies.



From the perspective of the overall competition pattern of domestic new energy passenger vehicles, with the aggravation of market competition, the market share continues to focus on the top advantage enterprises. From January to September 2019, the market share of the top ten new energy passenger vehicle companies was 73.5%, 1.7 percentage points higher than that in 2018.


At present, the domestic new energy passenger vehicle market is still dominated by independent brands, while joint venture brands occupy a small part of the market share. The market share of BYD, BAIC new energy, Geely Automobile, SAIC passenger vehicle and GAC passenger vehicle among the independent brands is in the forefront; the market share of SAIC Volkswagen, brilliance automobile, FAW Toyota and GAC Toyota among the joint venture brands is gradually increasing, but the overall share is still small.

With the listing of domestic Tesla, the competition pattern of domestic new energy passenger vehicle market will change significantly in the future.

The price of the upgraded version of the domestic model 3 standard is 355800 yuan, which is close to the price of the high-end new energy vehicle BYD Tang eV of the domestic independent brand. From the performance point of view, compared with Tang EV, model 3 is relatively close in the endurance mileage and has no obvious disadvantages, but at the same time, it has certain advantages in wheelbase, maximum speed, 100km acceleration, fast charging time and vehicle quality assurance.

At present, abb, Tesla's direct competitor, is not well prepared for new energy vehicles in China.

The new energy vehicles that Audi is selling in China are mainly imported Audi e-tron, whose price ranges from 700000 to 830000, which is much higher than the domestic model 3. At the same time, Audi lags behind the model 3 in terms of maximum speed, 100 km acceleration, vehicle quality assurance, etc.

At present, the new energy models put into production and sold by BMW in China include BMW X1 and BMW 5 series new energy plug-in hybrid models, which are not provided by pure electric vehicles at present. In terms of price, the price of BMW X1 and BMW 5 series new energy is higher than that of model 3; in terms of performance, model 3 shows the advantages of pure electric vehicle in terms of maximum power, maximum speed, 100 km acceleration, etc.

In addition, Mercedes Benz has not put new energy vehicles into production in China. Compared with high-end new energy vehicles of domestic independent brands and ABB's new energy vehicles, domestic model 3 has a strong competitive advantage.


What's more, before the first batch delivery of domestic Tesla Model 3 to mass consumers, the price was further reduced to 323800 yuan. In addition to the new energy preferential subsidies and purchase tax relief policies, the minimum price was only 29905 yuan, which further improved its market competitiveness.

In addition, the assembly process of domestic models is slightly better than that of imported models according to the comparison chart of model 3 produced by China and the United States. This also makes many organizations think that domestic Tesla is an important source of confidence for full production, full sales and even export.

The comparison between the model 3 standard range plus rear wheel and the model 3 standard range plus rear wheel is shown in the table below:



2、 Domestic Tesla industrial chain related companies

1. Tesla supply chain

Tesla is a comprehensive enterprise integrating cyclical consumer goods, finance, industry and public utilities. In terms of cyclical consumer goods, Tesla's main business is automobile manufacturing, including roadster, the latest model 3 and other new energy vehicles. Tesla also deals with power systems and supercharger products. In terms of finance, Tesla's business is financial services, including financial solutions and financial leasing solutions for loan purchase. In industry, Tesla's products are mainly supercapacitors and solar roofs, as well as pure electric truck projects, such as the recently launched electric pickup truck. In terms of utilities, Tesla's business is some large-scale power generation projects with alternative energy sources.

Tesla's rich and huge product line is composed of Tesla and more than 450 subsidiaries (see the figure below). Among them, in addition to the parent company Tesla Inc, two subsidiaries Tesla energy operations Inc and Maxwell Technologies Inc are also crucial.


As of the end of September 2019, there are 89 Tesla first tier suppliers and 1195 second tier suppliers recorded in the FactSet database.

American companies account for a large proportion of the 89 first tier suppliers. In January 2015, Tesla had 17 American suppliers, accounting for 36.17%; 9 European suppliers, accounting for 19.15%; while only 7 Chinese suppliers, accounting for 14.89%. In recent years, the proportion of American companies in Tesla suppliers has remained between 30% and 40%, while the proportion of Chinese companies has continued to increase.


As of September 2019, of Tesla's 89 suppliers, the number of Chinese companies is 20, second only to 28 in the United States. In addition, there are 14 European companies, 11 Japanese and Korean companies, and 16 companies in other regions. In terms of proportion, 31.46% of American companies, 22.47% of Chinese companies, 15.73% of European companies, 12.36% of Japanese and Korean companies, and 17.98% of Companies in other regions.



2. Domestic Tesla Model 3 supply chain

Although the number of parts of Tesla Model 3 has dropped from 30000 to 10000, it still has a complex and long supply chain system, involving many industries such as automobile, electronics, electrical, chemical, etc., and has many suppliers at home and abroad. With the rapid development of Tesla, especially the completion of Shanghai Giga 3 plant and the mass production of domestic Tesla cars, it also provides growth opportunities for domestic listed companies entering its supply chain.

In 2018, the German magazine Wirtschaftswoche interviewed an engineering company, which bought and disassembled model 3 in the secondary market. They think the material and logistics cost of the car is about 18000 US dollars, and the labor cost is about 10000 US dollars, so the total cost is about 28000 US dollars. Therefore, the total cost of parts for Tesla Model 3 is 18000 US dollars.

In the total value of model 3, the cost of three electric system is the highest, among which battery system accounts for the largest proportion. According to the standard endurance version of 60kwh, Tesla's latest kilowatt hour cost is about $111 / kWh (UBS data), so the cost of battery pack is as high as $6660, accounting for 37% of the total cost of parts.

In terms of battery system, currently Tesla mainly uses the power battery supplied by Panasonic and LG Chemical. Among the domestic listed companies, Xusheng shares supply battery pack shell, box, cooling system components and other products, and Huayu automobile supplies battery box and other products.

In terms of electric drive system, the motor controller is supplied by Tesla, and zhongxusheng Co., Ltd. is listed in China to supply products such as gearbox box, gearbox suspension, motor end cover, motor shell, etc.; Dongmu Co., Ltd. to supply inverter powder metallurgy parts, etc.; Zhongke Sanhuan Co., Ltd. to supply neodymium iron boron magnet products.

In terms of thermal management system, foreign suppliers mainly include Dana, Gaohua, etc. In domestic companies, Sanhua intelligent control supplies Tesla with thermal management products such as expansion valve and water-cooled plate.

In the automotive electronics sector, foreign suppliers mainly include Tesla (self supply autopilot system), Mobileye (camera), Lianchuang Electronics (vehicle lens), Delphi, Valeo (millimeter wave radar), Bosch (supply ABS system), etc. Among the domestic listed companies, Junsheng electronics mainly supplies HMI, the exclusive navigation map supplier of Tesla, and Changxin technology supplies central control panel module products.

In the body system part, foreign suppliers include lotus, etc. Among the listed companies in China, Huayu automobile supplies such products as body sub assembly parts, side wall, rear cover mould, etc.; Tianqi mould provides mould development and manufacturing services; Yian technology supplies such products as liquid metal car door lock buckle, etc.; Wencan Co., Ltd. supplies such products as aluminum alloy body structural parts.

In the field of interior and exterior decoration system, foreign suppliers mainly include magna, HeLa, motimati, Asahi, hanavist, etc. Among the domestic listed companies, Huayu automobile supplies seats, chairs, bumpers and other products; Daimei shares supplies sun visors and other products; Junsheng Electronics supplies driver airbags, steering wheel and other automotive safety system products; Ningbo Huaxiang supplies decorative strips and other products.

In terms of chassis system, foreign suppliers mainly include Bosch, Continental group, Michelin, ThyssenKrupp, etc. Among the domestic listed companies, top Group supplies products such as lightweight aluminum alloy chassis structure parts and large body structure parts for Tesla, TPMS products for Baolong technology and bracket products for Guangdong Hongtu.


It should be noted that in addition to the three electric system, the highest value of model 3 is concentrated on the chassis and interior. As a rising star of luxury cars, Tesla has relatively few cooperation with traditional mainstream tier 1 auto parts suppliers in chassis and interior decoration, so it gives domestic parts companies considerable opportunities.

This time, we built a factory near Shanghai port, which further enhanced the supply advantage of domestic enterprises and benefited the auto parts manufacturers in East China. Apart from Shanghai, Hangzhou is only 176 kilometers away from the port, Changzhou is 204 kilometers away, and Ningbo is 316 kilometers away from Hangzhou (if it passes through Shanghai Ningbo sea crossing bridge, the distance will be reduced to less than 300 kilometers). They are all within the scope of 4 hours supply. We believe that no matter in terms of labor cost, production efficiency or supply distance, domestic parts companies in East China have advantages over foreign enterprises, and have a greater opportunity to further increase the supply proportion of Tesla in the future.


At present, the companies that are known to benefit from both location and products include: top group, which is located in Ningbo and provides interior and chassis structural parts for domestic Tesla; Huayu automobile, which is located in Shanghai and provides seat assembly and exterior decoration for Tesla; Junsheng electronics, which is located in Ningbo and provides sensors and HMI system; Sanhua intelligent control, which is located in Shaoxing and provides parts of thermal management system; and In Ningbo, Xusheng Co., Ltd. provides lightweight cast aluminum parts.

3、 Profit elasticity calculation of some domestic Tesla supporting companies

With the official listing of domestic Tesla Model 3, the company as its supplier will benefit.

According to Tesla's current capacity planning, it is expected that the capacity of the Shanghai plant will reach 150000 vehicles / year and 300000 vehicles / year respectively in 2019 and 2020. In this paper, we only use the increment brought by Tesla Shanghai factory to measure the net profit elasticity of listed companies benefiting from Tesla industrial chain. The net profit elasticity in 2020 is based on the predicted net profit in 2019, and the net profit elasticity in 2021 is based on the predicted net profit in 2020.


From the analysis of single car value, Huayu automobile mainly provides Tesla with supporting facilities, including seat assembly, battery box and body sub assembly, side wall, rear cover mold, bumper, etc. it is estimated that the single car value is more than 10000 yuan; the single car value is the highest among listed companies. Next, it is expected to be the top group, which mainly supplies lightweight aluminum alloy chassis structural parts, large body structural parts, etc. Other companies with a single vehicle value of 1000-5000 yuan mainly include Xusheng, Sanhua intelligent control, Junsheng electronics, etc.


It is assumed that the domestic Tesla sales volume in 2020 and 2021 will be 100000 and 200000 vehicles respectively, and the domestic sales volume in 2020 and 2021 will be 150000 and 300000 vehicles respectively.

According to the elastic calculation results, the net profit elasticity of Xusheng stock, which originally had a higher profit share of Tesla, is relatively large. In the first half of 2019, the sales revenue of Xusheng shares to Tesla accounted for 52% of the main business revenue. After the model 3 is made in China, its net profit will increase greatly. Under the condition that the sales volume is 100000 and 200000, the net profit elasticity in 2020 and 2021 is expected to be 18.4% and 14.1% respectively; under the condition that the sales volume is 150000 and 300000, the net profit elasticity in 2020 and 2021 is expected to be divided 27.7% and 21.1% respectively.

The products supplied by top group to Tesla include lightweight aluminum alloy chassis structure parts and large body structure parts. The value of single car is large. When the sales volume is 150000 and 300000, the expected net profit elasticity in 2020 and 2021 is 9.4% and 7.5% respectively. When the sales volume is 150000 and 300000, the expected net profit elasticity in 2020 and 2021 is 14.1% respectively And 11.2%.

In addition, Dongmu, Baolong technology, Sanhua intelligent control, Huayu automobile and other companies will also obtain about 1% - 3% profit elasticity due to model 3 domestic production.


Oriental Securities: opportunities of Tesla's domestic industrial chain under the reconstruction of new energy vehicle pattern

Fortune Securities "industry bottoms up and pays attention to opportunities brought by Tesla's localization"

Haitong Securities Basic Quantification Research (2)

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