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Tesla's domestic model 3 drops to below 300000 or stirs up the market pattern

via:雷锋网     time:2020/1/4 20:31:19     readed:1020

At the beginning of 2020, Tesla will surprise the electric market. At the end of 2019, Tesla announced the delivery of 15 domestic model 3 in Shanghai Super factory, and on January 3, Tesla's domestic model 3 released the price reduction news. Tesla officially adjusted the selling price of the domestic model 1313 to 323800 yuan (including basic auxiliary driving function) from 355800 yuan.

In addition to the official preferential policies, the purchase of the car can also enjoy the exemption of purchase tax and the state subsidy policy, with the subsidy amount of 2475 yuan. Therefore, the current subsidized price of the car is 29905 yuan.

In addition to the price cut, Tesla officials also cut the price of the car's optional items. For example, the price of pure black car paint before the price of 9,500 yuan, now adjusted to free; pearl white, cold silver, deep sea blue and the previous price of 18,900 yuan of Chinese red car paint were adjusted to 8000 yuan; the previous price of 14200 yuan 19 inch sports ring, now the price of 6000 yuan.

Even if the price reduction is very strong, there is still room for further exploration.

According to industry analysts, Tesla Model 3 still has room for a price cut of 4-5 million, and if further cuts are made, then it will have a huge impact on the competition pattern of the entire auto industry.

Is there room for a reduction in domestic Model 3?

Domestic model 3 urgently needs to face the problem of price reduction. Parts are an important part of price reduction. Tesla needs Chinese suppliers to reduce costs.

According to Deng Yongkang, an analyst at Anxin securities, localization of Tesla parts is imperative, and there is still room for price reduction in the future. Tesla plans to reduce the cost by purchasing more domestic parts, so as to reduce the import of parts to avoid tariff cost. It is expected that the localization rate will be increased to more than 80% in the third quarter, and the gross profit rate of single car will even exceed 30%. With the synchronous production of model y in the third quarter, the future will bring new growth points, and the global sales volume is expected to exceed 500000 in 2020.

Tesla's batteries are supplied by Panasonic. As Panasonic integrates the manufacturing of power cells into the super factory, Tesla will purchase materials independently, which may be replaced locally. In terms of motor and electric control supply chain, Tesla currently switches from AC asynchronous motor and traditional IGBT inverter to permanent magnet synchronous motor and SiC inverter, and the materials of permanent magnet motor will probably be purchased in China. If Tesla introduces more Chinese suppliers, the cost will be greatly reduced, and there is still room for price reduction in the future.

According to the analysis of public information, at present, Chinese suppliers are mainly concentrated in the three fields of powertrain system, central control system and charging system, and they have not entered the core supply chain system of domestic model 3.

(prepared by: xinzhijia)

Although there is a large gap in new energy vehicles in China, there is no strong market-oriented demand, and the market will be slightly weaker as policy stimulus shrinks. At the same time, China has not yet formed a mature new energy auto industry chain, and whether Chinese suppliers can support Tesla's ambitions is unknown.

Three core technologies lead new energy

Domestic model 3 takes power battery system, automatic driving technology and FOTA technology as the core, as the key to support its competitive advantage.

The powerful cell jointly developed by Tesla and Panasonic, as well as the battery management system and battery cooling system independently developed, have built a moat in the core field of electric vehicles.

The power battery, as the power source of the electric vehicle, is the core part of the whole industry chain, and the domestic Model3 power battery system accounts for 32.4% of the total vehicle cost.

From 18650 battery to 21700 battery, Tesla and Panasonic have achieved independent research and development of battery monomer, and achieved a breakthrough in energy density, reaching 260-280wh / kg. Leading the Ningde era and BYD. (Ningde times and BYD are both 200-240wh / kg)

tesla battery cost is ahead of the industry and has fallen to $111/kwh at the end of 2018 and will be further reduced to $100/kwh. In the industry marks the total cost of electric vehicles will be close to or even lower than fuel vehicles, which is a milestone for the future of Tesla products and even electric vehicles.

In terms of autopilot, the domestic model 3 is equipped with autopilot system, camera as the leading hardware, hardware 3.0 chip, 8 cameras, 12 ultrasonic radars and 1 millimeter wave radar.

In addition, Tesla on the one hand, through the hardware system's powerful preemptive autopilot, on the other hand, through the FOTA air upgrade way to update the software, to ensure that the hardware system optimization potential can be realized. Compared with the OTA of other car enterprises, FOTA technology can iteratively carry out the underlying system, directly push the software patch to the relevant ECU, and complete the functional upgrade. But the vast majority of car companies can only achieve the vehicle system OTA upgrade

Stir up the domestic electric vehicle market pattern

Referring to the Model 3's performance in the global market, according to data from the foreign media EV, the world has sold 1.7636 million new energy vehicles in the first 10 months of 2019, and 1.7636 million new energy vehicles in the world, with an average market share of 2.2 percent, of which Tesla Model 3 has the highest total sales of 22,1274,2.7 times the sales of the second BAIC EU series (81,926). Tesla already accounts for 30% of the global market for new energy vehicles.

Then look at the competition pattern of China's new energy automobile market. At present, the most representative new energy vehicles in China are Weilai and Xiaopeng, and the two are also announced in public many times to the standard Tesla.

On the NiO day in 2019, the price of the new ec6 launched by Weilai has not yet been announced. Li Bin said: "Tesla has not yet announced the price and hopes to give ec6 some freedom."

Look at Xiaopeng P7, in the price of P7 is expected to be between 27-3 million, and then look at the performance of the performance, Xiaopeng P7 four-drive high-performance version of the maximum power 316kW, peak torque 655 meters, NEDC integrated operating conditions range 550 km; rear drive ultra-long renewal version of the maximum power 196kW, peak torque 390 ox meters, zero-hundred acceleration time 6.7 seconds.

While Tesla's domestic model 3 long endurance version adopts double motor all wheel drive, with 0-100km / h acceleration time of 4.6s and NEDC endurance mileage of 590km; performance high-performance version also adopts double motor all wheel drive, with 0-100km / h acceleration time of 3.4s and NEDC endurance mileage of 595km.

Some analysts said that if the price of Tesla's domestic model 3 is further explored, the domestic new energy vehicle market will probably have a strong recovery under the leadership of Tesla. With the introduction of new joint venture models such as model 3, the supply side will be further enriched, and the cost performance improvement of b-end taxis and C-end independent brands are expected to bring increment, and the annual output is expected to resume high growth, which is expected to reach 160-1 800 thousand.

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