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Tesla China fast run: no money, no exclusion of price increase in the future

via:IT时报     time:2020/1/17 19:40:47     readed:47

Tesla made in China is really fragrant. With the delivery of 10 domestic Tesla Model 3 on January 7, Tesla's sales volume in China went up all the way. Gold leaf (pseudonym) of Tesla's sales staff was so busy that he couldn't even reply to wechat. "Now, it's time to place an order and pick up the car two or three months later."

In the Tesla super factory near Shanghai port, the original open parking lot is gradually filled with model 3. Engineer Lu Ming (pseudonym) is proud of the "speed of Chinese workers", satisfied that the distance between him and "AIDU" Musk was only 50 meters, but he has been working overtime for nearly two months.

Tesla, whose subsidy is less than 300000 yuan, has successfully driven the Chinese people's love for new energy vehicles. However, when the subsidy of domestic new energy vehicles is generally "wailing" and the market is depressed, according to Societe Generale Securities Research Report, with the localization of Tesla's supply chain in the future, its price still has a 27% - 34% reduction space.

This is not good news for domestic new energy vehicle enterprises.

Domestic vs imported 30% cheaper

On the afternoon of January 13, one week after Tesla's delivery, although it was a working day, Tesla's Shanghai Taiguhui store was still crowded. Many people gathered around a domestic Tesla to complete the "trilogy" of self filming, hands-on and sitting in.

"There are so many people who test drive and place orders at weekends that they have no time to reply to wechat consultation." Jinye is a salesman in Taiguhui store.

"It's estimated that it will take two to three months to place an order and collect the car. Everyone thinks it's cost-effective. Shanghai owners can get another Shanghai brand." Jin Ye revealed that in the morning alone, her team had already won three orders.

Although most people come to Tesla from China, model 3 of imported version still occupies the C position in the store, and only the imported version can be used for test drive.

The imported four-wheel drive long-term model 3 costs 439900 yuan. In addition to a 15 inch tablet computer equipped with Tesla system, the dashboard is all replaced by wood grain decoration. After startup, driving, navigation and entertainment information are all displayed on the tablet computer.

Compared with the average 1.6L compact car which needs 11-13 seconds to accelerate in 100 km and 2.0T medium-sized car which needs 7-8 seconds, the domestic Tesla 5.6 seconds to accelerate in 100 km can be regarded as the top speed. Autopilot basic auxiliary driving function can sense and follow surrounding vehicles, and automatically assist in steering, acceleration and braking in the driving lane, but can not sense traffic lights.

The domestic model 3, which is about 30% cheaper, has a range of 445 km from 590 km. The four-wheel drive has been changed to the rear two-wheel drive. The acceleration time of 100 km is 1 second slower, and the rear seats cannot be heated. In addition, other functions are almost the same.

"At present, the localization rate of domestic model 3 parts is about 30%." As a result, the price of less than 300000 yuan is particularly attractive, Jinye told reporters.

Mr. Shen is a car enthusiast and one of the first purchasers of the domestic model 3. He calculated an account for the reporter, presenting the Shanghai brand as a gift, low charging cost, no purchase tax, zero maintenance cost, plus the auxiliary driving function, which is very cost-effective.

The battery capacity of the domestic model 3 is 60kwh, which is calculated by the mileage of 300km. After 22:00, it is charged by the domestic charging pile, 0.307 yuan / degree, with an average of 6 cents / km; during the day, it is charged by overcharge, with an average of 0.4 yuan / km. Zhao, who has been importing high-performance model 3 for nearly a year, used to spend nearly 500 yuan a week on fuel. Now she can charge up to two times a week for more than 100 yuan each time, which is still the cost of using super charging piles, at least 50% cheaper than fuel vehicles.

However, after the price reduction, the domestic model 3 has cancelled the service of free gift and installation of household charging piles. If the owner needs to install the charging piles, he should pay 8000 yuan for the installation.

"Price increase is not excluded after the supply is first depressed and the market share of 50-60% is occupied." Rong Hong (pseudonym) has been working in the automobile industry for many years, and has always been concerned about Tesla. For the current price, he thinks that Tesla's profit is very low. The current price may be Tesla's sales strategy. "From the perspective of endurance, the cost of electric core is 80000-90000, the cost of electric drive is 30000-40000, and the cost of materials is not less than 200000. In addition to the cost of sales and stores, there is almost no profit."

But the previous research report of Industrial Securities on Tesla's domestic supply chain shows that the production cost of domestic model 3 is 20% - 28% lower than that of the US version. Industrial Securities estimates that if it pursues a similar gross profit rate with the US version, the domestic model 3 has a price reduction space of 27% - 34%, which corresponds to an absolute price reduction of 85000-108000 yuan.

Some people interpret this as that the price of domestic Tesla will drop to around 200000, but from another point of view, according to the current price difference between domestic and imported versions, the price of Tesla may not be as big as expected.

Battery mystery

Regardless of the profit geometry of domestic model 3, according to its goal of 100% localization rate, it will inevitably bring cost reduction.

The core cost of new energy vehicles is "three electric systems", that is, batteries, motors, electric controls, batteries are the most valuable part. Before that, Tesla had purchased Panasonic batteries, but it had been rumored that it would soon switch to LG 21700 batteries. At the same time, Ningde era, a domestic battery manufacturer, also preliminarily reached a battery supply agreement with Tesla. That is to say, Ningde era will provide batteries for some domestic model 3 in the near future. "The car you get is still battery free, but you can't guarantee it later." Jin Ye told the IT times that users could not know what brand of battery they ordered for the domestic model 3.

At least at present, compared with the news that domestic new energy vehicles are frequently exposed to spontaneous combustion, low endurance capacity and expensive battery replacement, Tesla has a good reputation for its endurance and battery quality, "about 1% of the power is lost in one year, and 10% of the power is lost in 10 years of driving, which can be almost ignored. The endurance can still reach more than 400 kilometers." Gold leaf is very confident in its own products.

Cheng Ganjiang, director of battery research institute of Qingdian Intelligent Energy Research Institute, also felt the same, "Tesla's battery quality and management are very good, and Sanyuan is one of Tesla's core technologies." He told the IT times, "the key is to solve the problem of safety and density from the root, carry out all-round protection, control and innovative design, solve the problem of safety and temperature adaptation under the condition that the existing battery cannot be innovated and broken through in a short time, and then trace back to the root, and solve the problem of charging, changing and endurance for the innovation of vehicle model, battery pack and changing mode."

"The Shanghai factory is the most important one for musk at present. The biggest potential market and the lowest cost production place are all in China." In the open space not far from the super factory, a new battery assembly plant is built. It is the daily work flow of the production line to make battery packs as big as a car chassis. Lu Ming may not care much about what kind of battery he will use in the end. Anyway, he will work overtime in the future. His Tesla battery production line, which began to work overtime in December, "only four hours of sleep a day, it's a bit too much." Even now, it's normal to leave work at 19:00, and it's common to work overtime all night.

Busy Tesla has no "year-end bonus"

In the past year, Tesla's Shanghai Super factory has made great progress. Lu Ming feels that it's not so much Tesla's speed as the speed of Chinese workers. Master Yao, the contractor in charge of the installation of Tesla's production line in the early stage, only had a day off in three months. For Lu Ming, his working condition has never been relaxed since he joined the company.

On December 30, 2019, the first batch of Tesla is about to be delivered. The original open parking lot is gradually filled with model 3. The test drive is the last process for domestic Tesla to leave the factory. "The test driver in the factory is very busy, and each Tesla must turn twice on the runway for shipment." Lu Ming told the IT times.

Compared with other Silicon Valley companies, Tesla's revenue is not high. Although it was closed in recent years, Tesla didn't have a year-end bonus. Lu Ming's biggest hope was to pay dividends in the stock price. Only after reaching $547 on January 14, Tesla's stock began to decline. As of January 15, it closed at $518 in the US east time. Foreign Tesla employees even protested that Tesla had pushed the original year-end performance review time to the beginning of 2020, which is equivalent to that the stock can only be divided after the stock has gone up, making the employees miss the earnings during the soaring period. And the only benefit that Tesla employees in China buy is free self driving.

Lu Ming's busy work, in addition to the considerable delivery volume from Tesla, is also in short supply of Tesla engineers.

Since the end of April last year, Tesla has repeatedly released recruitment information on its public address, but the position of the super factory is still not filled. "Engineers have not been fully recruited. There are many applicants, but few qualified ones." Lu Ming told reporters that of all the production workshops, engineers of battery lines are the rarest.

In January 12th, Tesla released a recruitment notice on the "Hong Kong Recruitment" public address, mainly on R & D team positions, including more than 20 positions including technical project experience, product support engineer, Data Engineer and so on.

In a QQ group called "Tesla Shanghai Super Factory Group", hundreds of workers discuss Tesla's recruitment, and the workers who have interviewed share their experience. They mainly interview with assembly line positions, such as forklift, quality, and general assembly. On the 15th, hundreds of applicants who had been informed of the interview formed a serpentine formation outside the application center of Tesla's port area. Mr. Wu used to work in an electronic factory. He applied for a logistics post. According to the notice time, he arrived at the scene at about 11 o'clock that day. "There are so many people waiting for his turn for 2 hours. In such a cold day, everyone is queuing outside. Even the door of the application center hasn't entered. There are many people who give up on the scene."

However, Mr. Mu is lucky among the interviewers. He arrived at the scene at about 12:30 after walking, bus and subway. After waiting for more than 1 hour, it was his turn. "I put my resume on Tesla's official website, and the interview was about quality inspection. The interview was very fast, mainly to see if I had any experience. If I passed, I will be informed at the end of this month as soon as possible. I hope it can be done after the Spring Festival To work in Tesla. "

The driving force for the future

The sharp contrast with Tesla's "hot" is the downturn of China's new energy vehicle market. In 2019, the sales volume of new energy vehicles fell 4.0% to 1.206 million vehicles year on year. There are many opinions that the overall market environment changes and Tesla's entry into the market make domestic new energy vehicles face unprecedented challenges. In a catchphrase on the Internet, "it's too hard.".

The "new four modernizations" of electrification, intelligence, networking and sharing are giving birth to the "revolution on the road", which is led by Tesla.

If we say that the "cold winter" sweeping the global automobile market only affects the current profits of various enterprises, the new four modernizations movement gives new changes to the automobile industry is the driving force that determines the future direction of enterprises.

"Tesla's popularity is no different from putting China's new energy automobile industry on fire." Pan Helin, executive director of the Digital Economy Research Institute of Zhongnan University of Finance and law, confessed to the IT times that the powerful brand effect makes it hard for other manufacturers to compete. Stimulated by Tesla, domestic new energy automobile enterprises should think about how to intensify scientific and technological innovation under the condition of gradual withdrawal of subsidies, which is conducive to innovation and technological progress of enterprises.

But that doesn't mean there's no chance.

"Tesla can't eat all the pure electric market. It's on the middle and high-end line, and there are market segments." In Ronghong's view, Tesla has a greater impact on Internet car manufacturers. Many Internet car manufacturers started to target Tesla. However, the advantage of Internet car manufacturers is that the domestic industrial chain runs well, and Tesla's supply chain is going to be Chinese, which needs to be integrated with the domestic supply chain, with a period of 1-2 years. At the same time, it also faces the challenge of technology re optimization and cost reduction.

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