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Tesla 2019q4 financial report: not enough money to go to Mars

via:虎嗅网     time:2020/1/31 14:42:33     readed:1420

At 3:30 p.m. on January 29 (PST, PST), Tesla's 2019q4 financial report was officially released.In fact, shortly before the financial report conference call, Tesla's official website had released the financial report documents. Although the U.S. stock had been closed at that time (1:00pm, PST), the stock price of Tesla soared in the after hours stage. After the conference, it rose to $660 per share, finally locked at $648.5 per share, with an increase of 11.62%.

(North America January 29 Tesla share price change)

Even though the pricing of after hours trading does not fully represent the situation after the opening of the next day, in the current situation alone, it should be no problem that Tesla's stock price has stabilized above $630 in the near future. (at the time of closing, Tesla shares closed at $640.81 on January 30, North American time, and $644.1 after hours)

(Note: on the day of Q3 financial report, the price rose to 306 US dollars in after hours, and the closing price of the next day was 299.68 US dollars.)

After the release of 2013 Q3 financial report (click here for analysis), Tesla received several good news successively, such as "cybertruck release", "Shanghai Super factory completed trial production vehicle", "the first batch of domestic model 3 delivery", and its share price soared to the sky.

So as early as January 21, Tesla's market value of $102.66 billion has surpassed that of Volkswagen Group (or even the combined market value of GM and Ford), climbing to the second largest market value of global automobile companies, and the first is Toyota Motor with a market value of $200 billion.

(market value of Toyota, data from ychart)

(Tesla market value, data from ychart)

(VW market value, data from ychart)

On March 21, 2018, at the special shareholders' meeting of Tesla, it was clearly stated in mask's "salary plan for gambling" that if the market value of Tesla can reach US $100 billion and meet the relevant requirements (realized), mask will receive stock awards worth nearly US $1 billion. Now with the release of the 2014 Q4 financial report, Tesla's market value will reach a new high, and the reward must have been mascot's bag, but for mascot, this is just the beginning.

Profitability and cash flow

Compared with the "historic moment" of the financial report of 2019q3, the financial report of 2019q4 is not so amazing, but it is still a satisfactory answer to everyone.

Total Tesla revenue in Q4 quarter $7,384 million , up 2% year on year, 17% month on month; gross profit$1.391 billion, down 4% year on year, up 17% month on month; operating profit:$359 millionyear-on-year decrease of 13% and 38%.

(total revenue, gross profit, operating profit, figure / hyperchart)

GAAP net profit is$105 million, down 25% year on year, 27% month on month, non GAAP net profitUS $386 million, up 12% year on year and 13% month on month.

(net profit, chart / hyperchart)

Although the net profit is not much, its gross profit and operating profit margin are maintained at a good level. In Q4, Tesla's gross profit margin is 18.8%, and its operating profit margin is 4.9%.

(gross profit margin, operating profit margin, net profit margin, figure / hyperchart)

The effect is that Tesla is finally rich. Its operating cash flow is$1.425 billion, up 15% year on year, 88% month on month; free cash flow up to$1013 million, up 11% year on year and 173% month on month.

(Tesla operating cash flow, capex, FCF chart, / hyperchart)

In Q4, Tesla's total cash reserves reached6 billion 300 million dollars., a year-on-year increase of 70% and a month on month increase of 17%. In other words, even if Tesla does not have the profitability now, it will be able to last for more than three years in the year with the most serious loss in 2017. Besides, Tesla now has good profitability.

(Tesla cash reserve, chart / hyperchart)

In the results of Tesla 2019q4, only the net profit of GAAP was lower than the expectation of Wall Street analysts, and the rest all exceeded the expectation. This is also an important reason why Tesla's share price will rise so much.

Sales volume and market demand

Most of Tesla's "perfect" results are attributed to its electric vehicle business, which accounts for 86% of its total revenue. In Q4, the electric vehicle business broughtUS $6.368 billionIts gross profit isUS $1434 million, down 7% year on year, up 17% month on month, and the gross profit margin slightly decreased, but remained at a high level of 22.5%.

(Tesla's revenue sources are vehicles, energy, services, etc., figure / hyperchart)

Although at this stage, energy business, services and other aspects have also contributed a lot to Tesla's revenue, it is obvious that the sales volume of electric vehicles has the greatest impact on the financial statements. Tesla in 2019q4Produced 104900 vehicles and delivered 112100 vehiclesIt has achieved a new record of 367600 vehicles delivered in the whole year, but these are not the most amazing,Tesla's average inventory time has now been shortened to 11 days, down 42% year-on-year and 35% month on month.

(contents of production, delivery, rental and inventory in financial report, figure / financial report of Tesla 2019q4)

(Tesla quarterly deliveries, figure / hyperchart)

(Tesla annual deliveries, figure / hyperchart)

In Tesla's current sales structure, model 3 accounts for a higher proportion, but this is exactly what musk wants. He wrote down Tesla's development direction 14 years ago. Later in the Q3 financial report conference call, he also stressed that model s / x will continue to be upgraded and optimized, but it will not be the main model for future development. In the future, model 3 and model y, which are relatively price friendly, are the models The key to sustainable energy development.

In fact, model 3 is indeed a "sharp tool" for Tesla to really open the market. In the 2019 global electric vehicle sales ranking, Tesla Model 3 is far ahead of its competitors and has become an outstanding player. (the sales volume of model 3 in 2019 is about 300000)

(from January to October 2019, the global sales ranking of electric vehicles, figure / cleantechnica, verified by the author, lacks several domestic models, but the sales are all in the middle)

Model 3 can become Tesla's "pillar", which is inseparable from its own excellent product strength and strong market demand. However, due to various problems such as production capacity, Tesla's market was almost limited to the North American market, but now it has gradually entered the European and Chinese markets. Although the sales volume in China is still low due to factors such as "the coming of domestic version" and "domestic brand competition", Tesla accounts for about 31% of the sales volume of electric vehicles in the European market.

(model 3 delivery share in different markets)

It is precisely because model 3, the current "profit cow" of Tesla, does not have a high profit margin like model s / x, and has experienced several price reductions, which has led to a slight decline in profit and profit margin compared with 2018q4, although Tesla's overall sales volume has risen rapidly.

So in the Q4 financial report conference call, musk mentioned that in the future for Tesla, the further growth of sales volume is very important for Tesla, and gaveMore than 500000 sales in 2020。 To be honest, this figure is a little conservative. I think it may be more than 550000 or 600000, but "Ma Dazui" obviously knows how not to leave a handle on "analysts".

Of course, the task of sales growth will not only fall on the model 3 model, "enlarged" model 3 is considered by musk to be the next "Top Model". Based on the excellent product force of model 3 and the market favorite SUV model, model y will become another milestone model for Tesla's rapid development.

At the general meeting of shareholders in June 2019, musk mentioned that the potential market demand of model y is about 2.5 times that of model 3, and its future sales volume may exceed the total sales volume of model s / 3 / X. It is also because of the importance of model y that Q4 financial statements announced two good news about model y.

Secondly, in Fremont factory, model y has started small-scale mass production in January, and the owners of the reservation have determined that part of the car can be picked up in March, and the large-scale mass production will start immediately, that is to say, model y only takes 10 months from the release of the concept car to the mass production. In addition, the model y production line of Shanghai factory is also under installation and commissioning, and will be formally mass produced in 2021.

It was mentioned in the conference call that the profit margin of model y will be higher than that of model 3, which means that once the SUV enters the period of high-speed growth, the value generated by the production experience and technology precipitation accumulated by Tesla in the previous years will burst out through model y.

(operating cash flow, free cash flow, number of vehicles delivered, the position marked in the figure is the turning point brought by the start of mass production of model 3 in Q2, 2018)

Once the model 3 was released, it received a lot of orders, but due to the lack of capacity, Tesla almost died. For model y, there is obviously no such problem. Not only is Fremont factory expected to reach 500000 production capacity in 2020 (at present 400000 production capacity), but also the carefully built Shanghai factory can further improve the production efficiency and capacity. Moreover, only a phase of construction has been completed at present, and the factory not in Shanghai will take the responsibility for the main production capacity of model 3.

Whether Tesla's products are excellent or not doesn't need to be talked about. The actual market reaction is enough to explain the problem. We need to know that Tesla never spends a cent on advertising, and most of the publicity flow is "word-of-mouth". For example, cybertruck, which was launched a while ago, even though there are many disputes, actually has more than 300000 orders. Musk said in the conference call that the current booking volume has exceeded the cybertruck capacity of 2-3 years, and Tesla will produce several cars and sell several.

The market is optimistic about Tesla, not only because the products are good enough, but because Tesla's value far exceeds that of an automobile company.

Car enterprise or technology company

Although in terms of market value, Tesla is now equal to the traditional auto giants, in terms of sales volume, Tesla is not as good as the odd parts of Volkswagen and Toyota. In 2019, the Volkswagen group sold 10.97 million vehicles, while Tesla's sales volume continued to rise, but in 2019, the total sales volume was less than 370000.

As a car company, there are not many cars sold. Why is the market so optimistic about Tesla?

The reason is not only that Tesla "dominates the competition" in its main battlefield (electric vehicle market), but also that Tesla shows its strong technological potential. From system software upgrade to automatic driving "evolution", these things may be just a good experience for ordinary users, but for capital, these are very strong cash potential.

For example, Tesla joined the smart call function after V10 upgrade, and its FSD option price increased by 1000 US dollars. Before the automatic driving conference, musk said that the automatic driving system will become more and more expensive with the perfection level, and will gradually become the biggest advantage of Tesla electric vehicle. For another example, now the model 3 full drive version can be equipped with acceleration kits online. After "payment upgrade", the vehicle will have stronger power and acceleration performance.

As the impact of software upgrade on vehicles has been involved in all aspects, the change of vehicles through OTA will be beyond the imagination of the traditional automobile field. After two OTA upgrades in 2019, the power of the model 3 performance version has been increased from 420 to 490, and the acceleration time of 0-60 miles has been reduced from 3.8 seconds to 3.2 seconds. In addition, all Tesla models can be improved not only in performance, but also in endurance, automatic driving assistance and other aspects after the OTA upgrade.

Once there are more and more end users in Tesla, the value of its software will also show an exponential rise. In the future, the business value that OTA can achieve will be the same as that of APP in the Internet era, which will ensure the user experience, realize the ultimate convenience and reap huge profits at the same time.

As a car company, Tesla's model s 8 years ago is still the best electric vehicle with comprehensive performance in the market. As a technology company, Tesla has set many industry benchmarks in many aspects such as automatic manufacturing, three electric technologies, and automatic driving. Then, the scariest thing is that the company never seems to slow down. In 2020, model s / x will usher in a new plaid The upgrading of power assembly, the "battery and power assembly conference" will be held in 2020, and the new battery technology (super capacitor, solid-state battery) after the acquisition of Maxwell will be announced

In fact, many people like that Tesla is not simply attracted by its electric car, nor simply admired by mask's personal charm, but mask always brings exciting surprises to the world. People are tired of highly unified technology products. They always want to see some more black technology applied to consumer products. That's whyAppleAs a product with such a high premium, it is also one of the reasons that people like it.

What's more, musk doesn't own only Tesla, or the soaring stock price of Tesla recently, which is not only related to Tesla's performance.

A while ago, SpaceX successfully tested the escape system of the manned space capsule. Immediately before the Q4 financial report was released, the first launch of the star chain plan was launched in 2020. One arrow of 60 stars was successfully launched, and the first stage rocket was successfully recovered at sea again. This rocket has been recycled and reused for the fourth time. After that, the star chain rocket will be launched every two weeks.

Musk recently replied on Twitter: "build 100 starships a year, 1000 in ten years, and send them to Mars with a capacity of 100 million tons or 100000 people a year. That's my goal."

"The launch window from the earth to Mars needs to wait 26 months at a time. What are you going to do in the two years?" asked the netizen

Musk replied: "first let the fleet put into earth orbit, and then in the 30 day window, send to Mars together. "

"To build such a huge Mars fleet is why I'm trying to make money on earth," Musk finally replied

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