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When will the epidemic return to zero? Expert response of emergency center of China CDC

via:央视     time:2020/2/22 11:07:42     readed:58

On the evening of the 21st," news 11", bai yansong specially invited the chinese cdc emergency center researcher xiang nijuan, and the chinese academy of engineering academician, huazhong university of science and technology party secretary shao xinyu, to interpret the latest epidemic.

Now maybe one patient can't spread to another

Is the contagion of new coronary pneumonia decreased? According to an early survey, an analysis of some known data shows that in the early days, one patient was basically able to spread two to three people, and now, based on an analysis of the disease curve, it can be said that so far, one patient may not spread to one patient, because if the transmission index is still the same as in the first place, the current trend of the epidemic is not as it is now.

The people the patient contacted two days before the onset of the disease are now close contacts

For the determination of close contacts, researchers from the emergency center of China CDC introduced to nijuan that the original determination of close contacts was based on the patient's symptoms, and the close contacts needed 14 days of medical observation. Now there is a change, and (now) it is necessary to determine the contact person of the patient two days before the onset of the disease. The contact person of the two days also As a close contact, he also needs 14 days of medical observation, which is a major change in the determination of the secret connection at present.

When will the epidemic return to zero?

As for when the epidemic situation concerned by the outside world will decline and return to zero, researchers from the emergency center of China CDC introduced to nijuan that it needs very accurate data support. Taking Wuhan as an example, the biggest difficulty so far is that the number of new cases per day is relatively large, the workload per day will be large, and the workload of close contact determination will also be large. First of all, it is a workload problem, and not only to complete such workload, but also to have a high quality of work, because only this kind of high-quality data can As a particularly accurate basis for our decisions.

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