Wen / Xiong civilization
Source: Titanium Industry Watch (ID：Taifangwu)
who are you? Which way?
Author Xiong civilization
Research Institute of titanium industry supported by data
Original Title: Tsmc loyalty and conspiracy
Chip wars, the war.
In a short time, Huawei was once again pushed into the spotlight, and TSMC and SMIC quickly jumped into the limelight. A senior electronic expert commented:
"Without the 2019 crackdown ,Huawei's global market share in mobile phones could be ranked first by 2020 or 2021 at the previous annual compound growth rate. 」
The epidemic has not yet completely subsided, and a new chip campaign has begun.
On May 15, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that it would extend Huawei's temporary license for another 90 days, until August 13, 2020. At the same time, it made a big move on the license ban, so that TSMC could no longer manufacture chips for Huawei.
On the same day, TSMC announced that it plans to build a 5nm wafer semiconductor plant in Arizona, the US. It is expected to start construction in 2021 and put into production in 2024, with a monthly output of 20000 pieces. The total investment between 2021 and 2029 is 12 billion US dollars, which can create more than 1600 direct high-tech professional posts and thousands of indirect jobs.
The superposition of two messages has deepened the anxiety of Chinese people: what kind of enterprise is TSMC? Which side are they on?
To put it simply, the business logic must follow. However, enterprises to a certain extent, will be bound to be carried into the current of the times, fear is difficult to be alone. In November 2019, TSMC founder Zhang Zhongmou said:
"The world is no longer peaceful. TSMC has become a place for geostrategists to fight for. "
A word is a prophecy.
Another way: to create chip manufacturing mode
Before TSMC, chip manufacturing was concentrated in large European and American factories, using the integrated Device manufacturing model
Among them, IDM mode requires a very high initial capital investment, and also requires technology, equipment and talents in the whole industrial chain, which is rare in the world. Zhang Zhongmou considered that if TSMC adopted this conventional mode, it would be difficult to get ahead, so he took a new approach and disassembled the "back-end manufacturing" link to become a foundry specialized in chip manufacturing, namely foundry. In this way, the existing competition mode of the industry is avoided, the vertical division of labor of the industry is driven, and a new situation of "multi win" is created. As a result, a number of chip design companies emerged as the times require, becoming the current fabless mode.
With the help of TSMC ," Fabless (Waferless Factory Designer) Foundry( Generation Factory)" has become the classic mode of chip manufacturing. Fabless can focus on design and Foundry on etching designer blueprints onto chips. This division of labor has greatly promoted the development of the global chip industry.
Since then, chip manufacturing has formed a relatively stable ecosystem: front-end design, back-end manufacturing (MFG), package testing, and finally put into the market. The front-end design is the soul of the chip, and the back-end manufacturing is the flesh of the chip.
Tsmc has taken the lead in the market since it locked in backend manufacturing. Tsmc revenue rose 21% in the third quarter of 2019, according to CINNO research industry research data, of which more than 50% of the performance came from less than 16 nm of advanced processes, and 7 nm was even more explosive queue to grab capacity. TSMC's global market share rose further to 55.7% from 53% in the second quarter. That is to say, one of every two chips in the world is produced by TSMC, which can be basically called a single failure.
However, what really makes big countries nervous is not the market share of TSMC, but its advanced global process. Whether Apple is about to launch the iPhone 12 in the second half of the year or Huawei's mate 40, it is expected that TSMC's 5nm process will be mass produced. In the 5g battle in the future, the Samsung exynos980 aside, the Tianji 1000 of MediaTek, the Kirin 990 of Huawei and the Qualcomm Xiaolong 865 all rely on TSMC technology.
In short, TSMC has the most advanced chip manufacturing technology before the limit of Moore's law. In the world, there are almost no other options except TSMC for chip manufacturing below 7Nm. The anxiety of Chinese people has become a question: which side are you on? Within TSMC's equity structure, the dominant US capital is speculated to be an important basis for the selection of side positions.
According to TSMC's 2019 annual report, TSMC's largest shareholder is the special account of TSMC depository receipts held in the United States, i.e. U.S. shareholders, with a shareholding ratio of 20.54%; Taiwan's Executive Yuan, with a shareholding ratio of 6.38%; Singapore's government, with a shareholding ratio of 2.93%; JPMorgan chase Taipei Branch, with a shareholding ratio of 1.5%; the Norwegian central bank, with a shareholding ratio of 1.41%; and other shareholders, with a shareholding ratio of less than 1%.
Top ten shareholders of TSMC
In fact, this information reference is not significant
rise from time to time, rise from powe
When TSMC was in power, Zhang Zhongmou, the only one in Taiwan, was praised by the world for his great strategy.
For a successful enterprise, the strategy of the founders and the team will be the key factor; for a great enterprise, it is not enough to rely on "human strategy" alone, but also need to follow the "time" and take advantage of "local advantages".
The so-called heroes are those who follow the trend.
Taiwan's semiconductor boom can be described as stepping on the remains of Japan. Japan's leading global semiconductor was dismembered by the u. s.and moved to taiwan and south korea, where it was given the "logic" cake and south korea the "memory" cake, making the rise of tsmc and samsung.
The small investment and high income of consumer electronics orders attract American enterprises. The investment in chip manufacturing is often 10 billion yuan, and the business of "income 60 yuan, investment 100 yuan first" is all done. If one direction is not right, there will be water drift. Looking at the input of equipment, one set of equipment of Texas Instruments can be used for more than ten years, and the depreciation of one set of equipment of TSMC is only three years.
Make your own source to pick up the skillful work, and then transfer relationship households
TSMC's development should also take a "time", catching up with the explosive growth of personal computers and mobile phones. Human beings have stepped into the dividend era of 4G from 3G, which has laid the foundation for TSMC today.
In terms of "local advantages", Taiwan's division of labor system designed by the Americans is very "ambitious" to catch up with, and to develop semiconductors with the strength of the island. The extent of investment has made Taiwanese shout:
"Semiconductor kidnapped Taiwan! "
For the benchmark enterprise TSMC, the Taiwan authorities give full support in terms of capital, technology and policy. At the beginning of TSMC's establishment in 1987, Taiwan's "Executive Yuan" development fund directly provided us $100 million for strong government endorsement. Let TSMC rent "Taiwan Institute of industrial technology" for R & D and production at a very low price to reduce the initial operating cost of the enterprise. All kinds of subsidies in tax, even the strange thing that after tax profit is higher than before tax profit. Even electricity has the highest priority. Taiwan, which uses love to generate electricity, will not stop its accumulated electricity if it stops.
A senior analyst said:
"A small island like Taiwan can focus on a subdivision industry and grow vigorously. But the United States can't, nor can the mainland, because big countries have a lot to do, as well as aircraft and artillery, which can't be just chips. "
Tsmc's "man-made" is founder zhang zhongmou. Perfect resume, to achieve Texas Instruments No .3 real power figure Zhang Zhongmou, has too many stories and articles, need not repeat. Here's just one thing: tsmc's take-off started with a chip contract from intel, whose orders were based on zhang's personal strategy and contacts.
In addition, the source with ASML, the world's top photolithography mechanism manufacturer, is considered to be another help of TSMC. Both companies had Philips background in the early stage and had a deep cooperation in business. Only EUV can be used in chip manufacturing below 7Nm, while ASML is the only one who has mastered EUV preparation technology. ASML's EUV is hard to find. In 2019, ASML produced 30 euvs in the whole year, giving TSMC 18, which is enough for TSMC.
On December 1, 2018, the fire broke out in ASML factory, which affected the shipment in 2019 to some extent.
On the mainland, SMIC is struggling to purchase from ASML to a EUV, and has been repeatedly obstructed by the United States and delayed delivery. China's mainland to achieve mass production of domestic lithography, the most advanced can only achieve 90 nm..
Tianshi, Dili and renmou have made TSMC a chip giant today.
Judging the situation: setting up a factory in the United States
TSMC's decision-making process to build a plant in the United States, in the outside world seems treacherous.
Two days before the announcement, TSMC announced that it had no specific plans to build a factory in the United States. Earlier this January, TSMC's financial report meeting responded to the difficulty in controlling the cost of building a factory in the United States. TSMC's entanglement on this issue is obvious, and many people in the industry have commented on it as a "revolving posture".
On the surface, nearly 60% of TSMC's customers are in the United States, and apple, the largest customer, is also in the United States, so it's not surprising to build a factory in the United States. However, Apple's and terminal's shipments are still in Chinese mainland, and the construction of factories in the US is not close to the market.
From the back, TSMC was asked to build a factory for us security reasons, and commissioned military chips such as the F-35 fighter designed by sarinx. And this business accounts for one thousandth of TSMC's revenue, far from meeting the demand of setting up a special factory for this purpose, or even not having the conditions for mass production.
Business logic cannot be understood, so we can only use other Imagination: is it expedient to build a factory in the United States?
Back to the relationship between TSMC and Huawei. Huawei contributed 36.1 billion yuan in revenue to tsmc in 2019, up more than 80% from a year earlier, with revenue rising from 8% to 14%. become tsmc's second largest customer after apple. The new generation nm 5 chips, TSMC only two customers: except Apple is Huawei.
The U.S. license ban is basically customized for TSMC. In this "necking" campaign against Chinese national enterprises, Americans have almost shown the lower limit of their own self-discipline.
At first, more than 25% of U.S. technology in the production line will be cut off from Huawei, and then TSMC will determine that technology accounts for no more than 25% and can still do business with Huawei. The U.S. then changed to 10 percent, and found that TSMC's "U.S. technology content" was only 7 percent nm less than seven advanced processes that really affected Huawei.
It's useless to strike like this. Just tear off the mask and fight directly: as long as you use American software and hardware equipment, even if you use a hammer, you must obey the American ban!
Under the repeated pressure and pressure of the Americans, TSMC needs an "outlet" to relieve the pressure.
Many people are worried that TSMC has "gone to sea" with the most advanced 5nm technology. However, considering the production time line, the layout of TSMC has not changed: advanced technology in Taiwan, factories in other regions must be lower than the headquarters for one to two generations. By 2024, when TSMC's 3nm wafer has been mass produced and 2nm wafer is mature, it is still one to two generations ahead of the Arizona Project.
Different from the tangle of building a factory in the United States, TSMC's building a factory in Nanjing presents another scene. Taiwan's business week, a biography written by Zhang Zhongmou, called the Nanjing factory building one of the three beam column events before Zhang Zhongmou handed over his baton. Zhang Zhongmou not only attended the equipment mobilization ceremony in Nanjing factory in person, but also paid a special visit to the leaders of relevant departments in mainland China.
In fact, there are two problems that can't be solved when TSMC goes to build a factory:
First, the problem of supply chain. In order to ensure high quality and cost-effective materials, we should establish a perfect supply chain at the same time.
Second, the problem of technical talents. The technicians in Taiwan factories have master degree or above. Replication to other regions requires a large number of cost-effective high-quality talents.
These two conditions are very complete in Chinese mainland. A complete supply chain, abundant college graduates, and even a large enough market. TSMC's active factory building soon reaped the results: the Nanjing plant gained profits in less than a year of mass production.
TSMC Nanjing plant
The cost-effectiveness of the United States, especially the cost of personnel, is also an important factor in TSMC's entanglement
The cost of an engineer of equal capacity is several times higher for Americans than for Taiwanese. The middle-class youngsters, who drive the latest tesla, live in the bay area's panoramic glass smart house and watch netflix tv with apple and amazon smart products. Perhaps the most anxious thing about TSMC today is how to ask these young Americans to comply with the management of Taiwanese factories
Not only is tsmc tangle, but americans have no idea
In 2017, contract giant foxconn announced a $10 billion investment in wisconsin factory in wisconsin, claiming to create up to 13000 jobs, so it received a $3 billion fee reduction. Since then the project has been stuck
Zhang Zhongmou, who was unusually low-key in this incident, may be trying to figure out how to deal with such a lot of headaches.
Now and now: firmly "de-Americanization"
As the Pearl in the crown of electronic industry, chips are one of the most important scientific and technological achievements in both military and civil fields.
The U. S. development of China in the chip field, would like to use the three-body "Zhizi blockade ", but in the same global village, it is difficult to exist dimensionality reduction strike.
Although the source of chip technology is in the United States, it has been disassembled and scattered to many countries and regions for half a century, forming an ecological chain of several giant companies. Today, the naked "commercial kidnapping" in the United States has torn apart the mature ecology of the chip industry, which is not conducive to the development of global semiconductors, and enterprises in various countries may not be happy with its success.
After all, no businessman is willing to be stuck in the neck to do business.
Everyone is talking about TSMC's disconnection. What about Huawei? But few people ask, without Huawei's order, what would TSMC do?
Over the years, Huawei has accumulated a lot of customers and service resources in the world, which does not mean that it can be unplugged. In order to control risks, Huawei accelerated the transfer of 14nm and 7Nm advanced processes to SMIC. At present, Huawei's Qilin 710 series replaces the original TSMC 12NM with the core international 14nm. It is said that Huawei and SMIC have begun to actively cooperate in 7Nm process.
At the evening of June 1, SMIC's Kechuang board IPO accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with a record of 20 billion fund-raising.
The R & D investment of advanced process is huge, which requires customers to pay in advance. At the 5nm chip level, TSMC has only two customers, apple and Huawei. If you cut off any of them, TSMC will not suffer. It's not in its business interest to put all the eggs in one basket.
It is TSMC's "loyalty" to its business interests to mediate between China and the United States and diversify business risks.
However, as long as the industry chain is still operating in the old system dominated by the United States, TSMC's business choices are often inadequate
In addition, equipment has been cut off, the development of domestic chips is also a strong stimulus
On the chip issue, China has the determination and patience: the development of semiconductors is not achieved overnight, which requires the "Nurturing" of the market and strong national resources investment. At present, China has basically met the conditions for chip industry chain to break through one by one, leaving only time and talents. What's more, friends beat and flog from time to time. We should know our shame and then be brave. We can firmly believe that:
Look at China in the future.