Over the past year, the global semiconductor market has been short of capacity and prices. However, the memory market will soon usher in a cold winter. The price has fallen rapidly in the past August, and the contract price will also fall at the end of this year.
Previously, the industry expected that the memory price would usher in an inflection point in Q4, but the process seemed to come faster. The memory price began to decline rapidly in August, and the spot price fell by more than 30% from May to mid August.
The sharp drop in prices is also related to the inventory adjustment of PC manufacturers. Previously, due to the rising price of memory and the shortage of global semiconductor production capacity, downstream manufacturers had to increase inventory,Now the inventory level has increased to 8-10 weeks, or even 12 weeks, that is, three months without worrying about the availability of memory chips, which will affect the memory price in the next Q4 quarter.
Experts from the supply chain said that the contract price will fall in Q4, but the decline will not be very high, which is expected to be within single digits.
Previously, the well-known investment bank Damo was the first to release the bad report. This month, they released a new research report called winter is coming, which analyzed the current and future trend of the memory market.
Damo thinks,Now the memory chip industry is facing the later stage of the cycle, memory supply will soon exceed demand, and memory manufacturers will face a difficult pricing environment next year.
According to the prediction of Da Mo, the memory price will continue to rise in Q3 this year, and the price will become very challenging in Q4 (it was rumored that the price will not rise but not fall). The environment will change greatly in 2022, and the price will be reversed and begin to enter the price reduction cycle.
How much will memory prices fall next year? There is no exact information yet,However, from the previous bear bull cycle conversion, the memory price in the bear market cycle fell by about 50%This means that after the beginning of the memory price reduction cycle next year, it is likely to fall by 50%, which has a great impact on memory manufacturers.